Sunday, November 18, 2012

Diwali Sensex : Daaku ya Daani!!!

In the last one year, the stock markets have seen a plethora of events which have shaped it, shaped the concerned stocks. 2G scam, Coalgate, Mining scam, Policy paralysis, Union budget, Petrol price deregulation, Kingfisher crisis, savings rate deregulation, GAAR, Mamta di effect, Eurozone troubles, US presidential elections, Unlimited bond buying, QE-III, Inflation worries, Rate cut hopes, CAG and Kejirwali accusations and what not. Some of the stocks saw consistent, unperturbed rise while others went the other way round. Analysts and traders formed views and designed strategies to tame the market, sometimes winning and sometimes losing the gamble.
From Diwali 2011 (on 26th Oct 2011) to Diwali 2012 (on 13th Nov 2012), I have listed the returns of each of the 30-stocks of Sensex and compiled most important happenings related to the stocks. They are arranged as per their returns. HUL, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank leading the stocks which created the maximum wealth for their investors. Apart from them, 6 other stocks gave a return higher than 20% in the last one year. On the downside, Jindal Steel, Bharti Airtel and BHEL destroyed the maximum investor wealth. Another 6 stocks depleted investors' wealth by more than 10% in the past one year.

Sensex in the same period gave a positive return of 7.69%. Thus, 13 out of 30 stocks outperformed the index. stocks from FMCG(2), Pharma(3),Autos(2),Bankex(4),Capital Goods(1) & IT(1) constitute these 13 stocks while the 17 lagging stocks are mainly from Power, Oil & Gas, Telecom, Steel and Mining sector-clearly the troubled sectors.
Will the table of returns change in the coming year? Certainly. What are your bets?

Stocks Mcap(Cr.) Diwali'11 Diwali'12 Returns(%)  Highlights
HUL 112710.66 343 529 54.23 Earnings outperformance.Risk Aversion
Tata Motors 84548.3 191.8 277.55 44.71 JLR sales boosted margins and profits
HDFC Bank 151727.42 472 647.05 37.09 Consistent Earnings.Lowered NPAs
Sun Pharma 70327.6 503.75 688.6 36.69 Earnings boost from Taro acquisition
Cipla 30519.04 293 394.15 34.52 Superior exports earnings from Lexapro drug. Indore SEZ.Drug pricing policy.
ITC 213407.72 212.2 283.9 33.79 Support from Union Budget FY13.Improvement in FMCG business
Maruti 41571.27 1149.3 1462.35 27.24 Japan disaster. Manesar plant's labor troubles.
ICICI 118363.66 871.7 1059.75 21.57 Consistent Earnings.Lowered NPAs
TCS 251686.13 1095.9 1325.3 20.93 Earnings outperformance. Improvement in margins.
L&T 96860.71 1350.75 1606.6 18.94 Demerging of businesses. Improvement in order book.
HDFC 119207.02 667.2 784.55 17.59 Securitisation rules. Better earnings. Lower NPAs.
SBI 141421.68 1866.65 2171.35 16.32 Increased NPAs. Kingfisher, Power sector, SEBs troubles.
Dr Reddy 29845.78 1593.1 1755.35 10.18 New Drug Pricing Policy. Growth in PSAI business.
M&M 54917.51 849.4 906.75 6.75 Thrust from budget'13.SUV 500. Superior earnings as diesel cars prefered.
Coal India 221672.65 328.9 345.75 5.12 Coalgate scam. FSA with power sector. TCI sues GOI.
Bajaj Auto 52479.6 1757.6 1842 4.80 Rebate cut on exports. Extension in Pulsar & Discover lines.
Wipro 88490.93 368.7 369.2 0.14 Demerging non-IT business. TK Kurien factor.
Tata Power 23529.01 101 100.05 -0.94 Power gen cap to over 6K MW. Indonesian coal mine stake buy.
NTPC 137039.55 174.3 166.75 -4.33 Power gen cap to 39674 MW. Coal India FSA.
ONGC 218550.76 276.55 256.65 -7.20 Follow On public offer. Subsidy burden.
Reliance 250935.62 873.6 789.6 -9.62 Earnings under-performance. Kejriwal charges. BP deal progress. CAG accusations. Biggest share buyback.
Hero Motocorp 36294.2 2107.65 1869.65 -11.29 New branding exercise. Earnings underperformance.
Hindalco 20855.06 128.25 113.3 -11.66 Fall in Aluminium & Copper prices.Mahan Coal block issues
Tata Steel 35939.79 451.3 385.9 -14.49 Demand slack. FCCB redemptions. Capacity expansion at JSR
Infosys 134422.19 2838.65 2338.3 -17.63 Consecutive earning disappointments. Lodestone purchase
Sterlite 32704.55 122.2 100.4 -17.84 Sesa-Sterlite merger. Worldwide demand drop. Mining scam
Gail 43933.71 428.15 351.45 -17.91 LPG fee revision. Subsidy burden.CAG accusations.
BHEL 56282.56 316.85 231.6 -26.91 Order book slack. Margin pressures.
Bharti Airtel 114345.74 393.05 283 -28.00 2G scam aftermath. 11th consecutive quarterly profit decline 
Jindal Steel 34687.01 537.9 377.3 -29.86 Zee News stings.Mining scam.Demand slack.

P.S. Pardon the choice of the table-color. I know its terrible. But somehow, all the prior table formats that I tried on Excel were looking worse than this one. :)

2 comments:

  1. Gazab likhte ho aap, Thebaria ji :)

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  2. Dhanyavaad sarkaar..aaplogon ke protsaahan ka hi parinaam hai :)

    ReplyDelete