- Rs 7200 Crore
interest free loan to the millers for clearing their cane arrears of close
to Rs 3400 Crores. These loans are given for a period of 5 years with the
first two years being moratorium periods. Thus at 12% p.a. interest rate, it can save
upto Rs 2592 Cr. of interest payments in the next 5 years.
I think this is a positive but only a marginal one. Total debt for the sugar companies is Rs 21685 Cr. which is about 42% of their total liabilities. Year on Year the balancesheets have weakened because of increasing debt and thus, the interest free loan is a breather. Nothing more. - Increased
compulsory ethanol blending in fuel to 10% from present 5%
Another positive with a lot of riders. Ethanol is a by-product for this industry and can be safely added to fuel to make it more 'Green' as well reduces the price. Brazil has implemented a 25% compulsory blending norm for their Auto sector. We can do it till 10% without making any changes in the present automotive's structure and that’s what government should be pushing for. But this change will take time. Mills have been supplying Ethanol at Rs 38/litre as per the latest tenders wherein they would sell 1.33 billion litres of Ethanol to oil marketing companies. Doubling this revenue will be a sure boost to the sugar companies.
Finally some good news for Sugar
stocks in India!
You know what is a
'Bad' industry to be in? Not just 'Unattractive', BAD!
An industry where you can be forced to make losses, year after
year. Sugar millers of our country are those few lot where government can make
them run their mills even if they are making losses.
As from the chart
of top 10 Indian sugar companies in terms of Sales, except for EID parry and
Bannari amman, none of the companies showed appreciable profits last fiscal. Bajaj
Hindustan and Mawana Sugars registered a loss of Rs 720.15 Cr (-15.89%) and Rs
288.05 (-22.38%) respectively. These companies cumulatively made a loss of Rs
408.26 Cr. on total sales of Rs 24,474.61 Cr.
It's amazing how a
commodity, Sugar, which is considered an essential commodity is struggling so
hard to keep its head above water. Actually, its already under water.
Apart from EID
Parry, none of the top 5 Sugar makers have a market capitalization greater
than their total asset value. This is a sign of increased economic distress of
the companies. Bajaj Hindustan has the most depressed market capitalization in
that context. Ironically, it’s the largest miller among peers!
The reasons for
such plight of a long known business is known almost to everyone. And like
several other businesses, it's the government control that is slowly and
steadily stifling the sector. Or they have already put it on ventilator?
A brief description
of how this industry works: Farmers grow Sugarcane which is the raw material
for this industry. It makes close to 80% of total Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
expenses for the companies. Government decides
the prices at which those Sugarcane would have to be bought. The central
government has fixed a Statutory Minimum Price (SMP), also known as Fair &
Remunerative Price(FRP), which guarantees minimum price to the farmers for the cane
they have grown. But some of the states, like UP, Haryana and Punjab, add some
more premium to this SMP and call it SAP or State Advisory Price. This is the
price at which the state sugar millers have to purchase it from the farmers.
And to lure the
farmers, governments at both levels increase these prices frequently.
2010
|
2013
|
|
SAP
|
Rs 165/Q
|
Rs 280/Q
|
Production Cost
|
Rs 24/Kg
|
Rs 35/Kg
|
Domestic Sugar
Prices
|
Rs 28/Kg
|
Rs 31/Kg
|
(Q=Quintal).
Thus, from a profit
of Rs 4/Kg on Operating basis to a loss of Rs 4/Kg in just 3 years!
There are other
regulations, restrictions and nuances as well which drive this industry.
However, the recent issue arose when the SAP was again increased to Rs 280 per
Quintal which the Millers refused to pay. Few of them went on to strike and
closed down their mills as such a high SAP on the backdrop of falling
international sugar prices seems unviable. They asked government for an increase in import duty, interest-free loans for
mills, subsidies for exports and creation of buffer stocks to help mills.
Apart from that, it was also agreed a few days back that out of the Rs 280,
millers will pay Rs 260/Q immediately while the rest Rs 20/Q will be paid at
the end of the crushing season.
After
being threatened that court cases will be lodged against those who are not
crushing, they were forced to agree to begin the crushing season which
normally starts from November.
In order to remove
some pain, a Group of Ministers (GoM) chaired by the agriculture minister, Mr.
Sharad Pawar, finalised these sops to the ailing industry:
- Incentives to
produce upto 4 million tonnes of Raw Sugar which fetches premium in the
international markets.
This is another good move on two counts. One, Raw sugar realizations are better than normal sugar and thus will boost their cash flows. Two, if 4 mn sugar production goes out for exports, the domestic sugar prices will also get a boost as we have been expecting an over-production here. It is expected that in this Sugar year, India will produce about 25 Million tonnes of Sugar while the consumption will hover around 23 Mn Tonnes. Export on this scale will push the domestic sugar prices up by Rs 2/Kg as per expectations.
Now, none of the
measures are addressing the core problem of higher SAP which is choking the
industry because no government can dare to disappoint the farmers as they are
major voting chunk.
On Monday, the
rally in the sugar stocks should continue at the back of these developments,
but, going forward, the sector is still poised to feel the shock and
helplessness of being in an industry which is practically dictated by the
government. A look at their share prices narrate the same story. They have
fallen in the past 1 year from 22% to 55% or so.
Will such
incremental measures reverse the course of fate of Sugar millers in the
country? Time will tell but looking at the figures, it looks unlikely.
common dude... u seems to be some person out of millers... when they were enjoying extremely high profit with sugar at 40+Rs/KG and were giving farmers only 120 Rs/Q then you have not complained a bit... and the loss they are showing is not actually loss but only cooked books.
ReplyDeleteYou probably keeping your eyes close on how much loss farmers are suffering.. millers every year do this and dont start mills every year due to which farmers are not able to seed the wheat. they seed it late every year which leads to lesser amount of wheat now have u calculated that loss?? every year millers pays late to farmers or do partial payment. It comes so late that sometime pending amount of 2 years come and without interest so who enjoying the profit here and who is having loss? and all this happens due to cooked books and nothing else...
Hi, Thanks for the comment.
DeleteI am not against farmers and any price which is right for their effort should be made available to them. Having said that, do you think raising SAP by 70% in the last 3 years is justified and is not done only for political gains? If millers are destroyed, Farmers too will suffer 'coz unlike Wheat and Rice, Sugarcane is a cash crop and they earn almost double raising this. That is also the reason you can see a shift in the actual area under cultivation from Rice/Wheat to Sugarcane. Govt's regulation says that the millers have to buy everything that farmers produce and that's the reason for over-production in the country and the following consequences.
About cooked books, I really don't know. I would really be happy if you can show me how you concluded this. Rest of your argument is based on only this assumption that millers have cooked books. Until you are a very sharp chartered accountant or someone who is an insider in this business, I don't think it's simple to find if the companies are cooking up their books or not.
SAP price rise to 70% is completely justified because before that for more than 20+ years millers were enjoying more than 40% benefits every year. And in last 3 years also there is no loss practically. Do you know that millers not only sell sugar but also sugar waste (helpful in fertilize land) and u can't also miss DARU/Wine which's large part come from these millers. if you will assess the figures given by millers that will only show sugar and not the profit from other things ( or only a small part from it).
DeleteAnd as far as cooked book is concern it is pretty much clear and here is the main logic: I have purchased 100Q of sugar and let say it produced 12Q ( means 12 packets, so called bori) of sugar but i showed to govt that it produced 7Q of sugar. Govt can't refuse it because even same type of sugar cane coming from different fields will not give same amount of sugar juice and if we estimate different type of sugar canes then level is altogether difference.
You can perfectly understand that no miller can run a factory in loss.
For govt regulation, no miller take every type of sugar cane from farmer and in the past farmer have done strike for weeks to make that they take it and they took it late on a lesser price. so forget about Govt regulation in India at many many place... if Govt would have worked according to regulation then UP would have BSP govt by now :)
Sugarcane is not cash crop... wheat and rice have their seasons and farmers do rope them and BTW dude they also deserve to feed their family well and educate their children thats why they have to opt for multiple type of crops and they are doing it...
i have given the enough logic to prove how do they do it and cant show you the book of a miller to prove it :)
Generalising all companies to be fraud and cheat can never be the base of any policy making. I agree that there are several ways in which millers can cheat the system and make some extra bucks. But even after that, this policy of raising cane prices to such extent that the production cost of sugar exceed the selling price does not make sense. Yes, they make good profits on the by-products of sugarcane but Ethanol production is only a by-products business. And currently the situation is such that out of the various operations (Sugar production, Trading, Power Co-generation, Ethanol) that a sugar miller can undertake, only this segment is making smart profits. For example, Renuka Sugar has total sales from its operations at Rs 1534.9 Cr in Sept 13 quarter. Of which Ethanol revenue was at Rs 116.5 Cr and this segment made a profit of Rs 34.3 Cr while the PBT stood at a loss of Rs 174.5 Cr.This quarter saw incremental losses and since generally Q2 happens to be a bad quarter for sugar companies, so we may discount it to some extent, But the ROE from the business overall is pathetic.
DeleteI have taken Renuka as an example because this one has geographical synergies and is a fine integrated player of the sector. But if even they cannot run at a healthy profitability, other millers would also be facing deep issues,
Moreover, as I earlier said, farmers should get what they deserve but not at the cost of killing an industry. If there has been a mispricing earlier, that should be corrected slowly and gradually. Also, govt should look at ways so that the cashflows to the farmers are improved, their money does not get stuck with the millers and also methods to increase the recovery rate of sugarcane through improved mechanisations. Appeasing farmers is only going to ruin both, the millers as well as the farmers in the long run.
Thanks for sharing the important points of view with us. It is really very nice blog which describes how to SAP in sugar industry
ReplyDelete